Receita de exportação, taxa de câmbio e renda mundial: uma análise do mercado externo de soja no estado do piauí no período de 2003 a 2008

Abstract

Soy is currently one of the most promising products in the state of Piauí, being the most exported product by the state. Thus, the present study started from the following question: What are the explanatory variables for a variation of soybean storage revenue in the state of Piauí from 2003 to 2018? In order to answer this question, the general objective was to analyze what are the explanatory variables for the variation in soybean export revenue in the state of Piauí from 2003 to 2018 and the specific objectives were: verify the relative variation in the quantity and export price of soybeans in the period; assess the impact of relative exchange rate variations on export earnings; relate the income of major trading partners to the amount of export revenue; describe the influence of China's income elasticity on the relative percentage change of export earnings and know the public policies related to the foreign soy market. The methodology used in this study began with a literature review and documentary research, so that specific literature on the problem could be selected. Following this, a multiple linear regression model with natural logarithms was used to test the correlation between the variables. In conclusion, this study found that price and quantity variables are mainly responsible for explaining the variation in soybean export revenues in the state of Piauí.